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Monitoring of the Federal Legislation dated 30.11.2006
Decision of the State Duma of the Russian Federation No. 3779-4 GD of November 22, 2006 on the Main Directions of the Uniform State Monetary and Crediting Policy for the Year 2007
Envisages four options of forecasts of the balance of payments and their corresponding four options of the monetary program for the year 2007.
Option I has been worked out proceeding from the assumption that the average price for the Urals oil in 2007 will make USD 45 per barrel, option II - proceeding from the price of USD 61 per barrel, option III - USD 75 per barrel, option IV - USD 85 per barrel. All four options suggest that the net inflow of private capital will make USD 15 billion. Depending on the option, the surplus of the monetary base in 2007 will make from 16% to 24%. The surplus of money supply (aggregate M2) will make 19%-29%. Parameters of the monetary program may be refined according to the available macro economy situation.
By 2009, the level of inflation must be reduced to 4%-5.5%, with the goal for the year 2007 being reduction of inflation to 6.5%-8% from December to December.
Quantitative values of the possible increase of the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 lay in the wide range of: 0% to 10%. If close to the second option, the surplus of the real efficient rouble rate will make approximately 4%-5%. In case of a quick growth of world prices for oil, prices for other commodities exported by Russia, further increase of the net inflow of private capital, additional increase of regulated prices, additional expenses of the federal budget, the surplus of the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 may appear to be higher, approaching the upper boundary of the range.
The trend of dedollarization of the Russian economy will preserve. With significant drop of world prices for commodities exported by Russia, significant reduction of the inflow of private capital, the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 may remain at the level of the end of 2006.
The Decision is entered into force from the day of its adoption.
Option I has been worked out proceeding from the assumption that the average price for the Urals oil in 2007 will make USD 45 per barrel, option II - proceeding from the price of USD 61 per barrel, option III - USD 75 per barrel, option IV - USD 85 per barrel. All four options suggest that the net inflow of private capital will make USD 15 billion. Depending on the option, the surplus of the monetary base in 2007 will make from 16% to 24%. The surplus of money supply (aggregate M2) will make 19%-29%. Parameters of the monetary program may be refined according to the available macro economy situation.
By 2009, the level of inflation must be reduced to 4%-5.5%, with the goal for the year 2007 being reduction of inflation to 6.5%-8% from December to December.
Quantitative values of the possible increase of the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 lay in the wide range of: 0% to 10%. If close to the second option, the surplus of the real efficient rouble rate will make approximately 4%-5%. In case of a quick growth of world prices for oil, prices for other commodities exported by Russia, further increase of the net inflow of private capital, additional increase of regulated prices, additional expenses of the federal budget, the surplus of the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 may appear to be higher, approaching the upper boundary of the range.
The trend of dedollarization of the Russian economy will preserve. With significant drop of world prices for commodities exported by Russia, significant reduction of the inflow of private capital, the real efficient rouble rate in 2007 may remain at the level of the end of 2006.
The Decision is entered into force from the day of its adoption.
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